Landscheidt Cycles Research

Spin Orbit coupling is the transfer of orbital angular momentum to spin momentum between orbiting bodies. Total angular momentum (AM) is made up of orbital & spin momentum and both must balance. If there is an imbalance between solar AM and Planet AM we might have the missing AM to fuel a rotation change at the Sun. In a recent paper by Ian Wilson et al  “Does Spin Orbit Coupling Between the Sun and Jovian Planets Govern the Solar Cycle?” Ian discusses a viable theory of spin orbit coupling but also states there is no mechanical link. Perhaps now there is a new line of inquiry that may provide this mechanical link.

AM must always be conserved and this basic principle of the universe is seen all around us, one example is the Earth/Moon system where the reducing rotation speed of the Earth caused by tidal friction sees a conservation where the Earth/Moon distance increases by about 5cm a year.

Spin orbit coupling could be one area that may provide a link between the Planetary motions and a changing rotation speed of the Sun, basically if there is a mismatch in orbital AM it can be transferred to spin momentum (rotation speed). The Sun has it own angular momentum as it orbits around the centre of the solar system. 99% of this comes from the gravitational affects from the combined positions of the Jovian planets, this is clearly seen in Carl’s famous graph. Each planet also has its own AM which is  mass x distance x velocity, and as I have shown previously AM can be calculated using the SSB (solar system barycenter) or the Sun as the orbit axis point. If we measure the planet AM it can be compared against the solar AM and if done correctly any variation or missing AM can be determined. In the past this has been done by wiggle matching which is comparing 2 graphs, rescaling one to fit the other and comparing. This method does not provide mathematical results and the detail can be hidden in the scale of the graph.

I have always wanted to do my own comparison and in particular use the Sun as the orbit axis point when calculating planet AM. Gerry and I have collaborated on this project and combined our skill sets to produce an outcome.

To compare planet AM with Solar AM the inertial frame should be the same. The planet inertial frame calculated from JPL was another surprising result which looks to suggest it is in the barycentric frame rather that heliocentric. For our project we needed to make allowances. The project calculates planet AM using the Sun as the orbit axis point and the solar AM is calculated using the SSB as the axis point, then the solar AM is subtracted from the planet AM and the results recorded, Gerry explains ” By subtracting the solar orbital AM, we are making a simple Galilean transformation from the barycentric inertial frame for the freefall motion of the Sun about the solar system barycenter to the inertial frame of the Sun itself.  The reason we have to do this is that your planet position and velocity vectors are heliocentric.  Coordinates, and properties like AM derived from them, have to be in the same inertial frame as the inertial body (or alternatively a barycenter) to which they are referred.  That’s why I was surprised to see that the heliocentric Horizons data was referred to the barycentric frame used by the JPL DE ephemerides.”

The planet AM values were carefully calculated specifying the planet barycenter coordinates where applicable, and using planet mass measurements (13 decimal places) and velocity/distance coordinates xzy from the JPL Horizons database. The asteroids Ceres, Juno, Vesta and Pallas have been included. The initial planet AM values when summed showed a moving variation (not a constant as some have suggested) of each daily measure and when wiggle matched, lined up precisely with the solar AM curve, BUT there is detail missing that must be uncovered.

The next step was to subtract the solar AM from the planet AM to achieve the same inertial frame. The finished data showed a remarkable result that is still a work in progress value but at this stage looks promising. We have calculated an underlying fluctuating AM value that nearly follows the same curve as previously calculated by Carl. It makes up roughly .0000035% of Jupiter’s AM and could represent .2% of the average solar AM. These calculations are still in progress.

Here we have a comparison of Solar AM and the Planet AM variance…there is no way we can wiggle match these two data sets, the divergence points are of particular interest. The spreadsheet will be available in full detail shortly.

UPDATE: Some food for thought, below is the solar AM vs solar velocity graph (another wiggle match attempt). I have mentioned before that the two curves go out of sync which is strange for 2 data sets that are reliant on one another. It may be just a result of the mix between distance and velocity. The bigger variances look to line up with the bigger variances on the Sun vs missing AM graph.

If there proves to be an imbalance between solar and planet AM it could be traded off in velocity or spin or distance. Distance is unlikely and as seen the velocity does not follow a consistent pattern (although it is still a pattern). The first disturbance of the set (green arrows) sees a decrease in velocity, the second disturbance shows an increase…its not uniform. The blue dots also showing a divergence in the same places as the previous graph.

A presentation by G.E.Pease

The Sunspot cycle which averages 11 years is still a mystery, with no real conclusive science that has been put forward with any certainty on what controls the varying length of the Sunspot cycle.

Previously in my Neptune/Uranus article we discussed the work of Desmoulins who has graphed the “most aligned days” of Jupiter, Earth and Venus which shows a good correlation with the sunspot record. The two sets of data can drift away slightly but have always kept in sync in the last 400 years. Currently The most aligned days is lagging behind the  Sunspot record slightly and going by past occurrences should catch up during SC24 max. Hung as also done some similar research showing the same result as well as Ulric Lyons who presented his case on this blog last year.

Now we have another study by G.E.Pease which backs up this previous work and provides many diagrams and tables to support the Planet Tidal Theory. The presentation is in powerpoint format and can be downloaded HERE

Desmoulins graph: green peaks =JEV most aligned days

Several months ago I attempted to find some sort of data or graph on the angular momentum (AM) of the Jovian planets. After an exhaustive search it seemed as though nothing would be forthcoming. While there have been attempts to graph the Jovians using the solar system barycenter (SSB) as the orbit axis point, my research has suggested all the solar system planets orbit the Sun. Using the SSB as an axis point might be useful for some analysis, but it still remains an inaccurate method of calculating a planets AM if the orbit axis point is the Sun. The orbit axis point of the Jovians is still a contentious issue, but I believe the results of this project will add further evidence that indeed the Sun is king.

Using JPL Horizons I can retrieve the necessary XYZ coordinates and velocities and plug them into Gerry’s angular momentum formula. Many thanks go to Gerry, this project would not have been possible without him.

It must be noted that the JPL data for each planet uses the Sun centre for calculating distance. Technically this is still not correct and the Sun/Planet barycenter would be more accurate but at this stage I am not aware of this data being in existence.

Jupiter Angular Momentum Graph.

Very evident is the influence of Saturn along with the timing of the Jupiter perihelion (closest orbit point) and aphelion (furthest). The blue line is a moving average with the background grey areas being the actual data taken every 5 days. Because the centre of Sun was used as the axis point the actual data is a little choppy (theory). Although the modulation of the planet AM is obvious, very little of this change would be felt at the Sun. For further data on the Jupiter axis point and orbit perturbations see my previous article here: http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2009/04/03/which-point-do-the-jovian-planets-orbit/

LINK.

Although over a shorter period the Planet AM graphs using the SSB as axis point showing a clear difference…http://arnholm.org/astro/index.htm

Neptune Angular Momentum Graph.

The Neptune angular momentum graph is quite different, being on the outskirts of the solar system the data is less choppy and the clear influence of Jupiter every 13 years approx is quite staggering. The majority of Neptune’s orbit perturbations are in line with Jupiter, only the modulation of the peaks and troughs is influenced by the remaining Jovians.

Notice the very clear difference between the 2 axis points. Source http://arnholm.org/astro/index.htm

The SSB derived Neptune graph is clearly a product of the sun moving away from the SSB and dragging Neptune with it, this gives a false reading in the Neptune distance measurement which can also be seen on the Jupiter SSB graph at 1970. I believe the latest Jovian AM graphs prove the existence of the Jovian orbit axis point and also show the correct planet AM data (as near as possible to date). Another outcome of this research will be to nail down exactly what proportion each planet contributes to the overall AM at the Sun. The project is still incomplete but the Jupiter proportion looks to be about 60%. Saturn and Uranus graphs to follow.

UPDATE: P.A.Semi has a paper at http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0903/0903.5009.pdf

where he produces graphs of all planets calculating planet AM using both axis points. His data is in complete agreement with mine (using Gerry’s formula) and he also shows long term views of the SSB axis graphs.

This long term view of Neptune is particularly interesting, its shows the 172 year down spike each time Uranus is in conjunction, which moves Neptune closest to the SSB and also shows a background trend. The elephant in the room though is that all SSB graphs show a modulation of planet/SSB distance, where as the Sun centered graphs show the planetary perturbations. The failure of the SSB centered graphs to show the all important planetary perturbations suggests to me that all our solar system planets have the Sun as their axis point.

Gerry and I are currently working on a project looking for the missing AM that could finally give a solid link to the Spin-Orbit Coupling debate. Our initial results are very encouraging but we need to double check the data…stay tuned.

Click on pic for larger view

Reader Ron De Haan suggested a graph showing future Angular Momentum Disturbance Strength might be of interest. We only have JPL data out to 3000AD so this is the current limit, but the outcome is indeed very interesting. If the Solar activity follows the Angular Momentum trend we are headed for another Medieval Warming Period type era on even a grander scale.

After the Landscheidt Minimum which will be short and sweet, there looks to be another Dalton type event which is not considered all that strong. After that the planet will stay on a warm plateau for hundreds of years, lets hope we have learned by then that the warming we will enjoy is a natural state. The graph shows us how unusual the preceding strong Grand Minima are in our history, which was ruled by strong Type “A” disturbances or as Gerry calls them “Retrograde Bumps”. From here on the AM strength is moving to weak and gradually the disturbances are moving back to Type “B” which are known for periods of reasonable solar stability. So there is no need for pessimism, our children will have it good.

The JPL data used to create the AM graphs as per Carl’s Graph has a range from -3000 to 3000, but I am working on another quantifying method using purely the Jovian planet angles which should allow us to check against the complete Holocene record as well as looking out as far as necessary. Thanks to Tayla Sharp for helping with the graph.

This is the first time Angular Momentum Disturbance Strength has been quantified and is depicted by the purple line in the above graph. This purple line shows how Angular Momentum Disturbance Strength is the driver of solar downturns, it is the background curve of the proxy records. The method used is a preliminary method using visual observation of each disturbance of the graph period. With the discovery of Carl’s graph we are now able to easily see the different types of disturbance that comes in groups every 172 years average.

These disturbances always line up with periods of solar downturn. The Solanki/Steinhilber data shows regular solar downturns that vary in intensity, by observing the shapes of the disturbances that align with these downturns we are able to see a pattern that is repeatable. An example of this is the regular appearance of strong Type “A” disturbance occurring at times of severe grand minima. Weak Type “B” disturbance always is associated with very minor grand minima. There is no indication of this pattern not following suit except in the rare occasion of strong Type “A” disturbance not fully firing when not meeting the “Wilson’s Law” test. This test states that for a disturbance to fire the Jupiter/Saturn opposition or conjunction must happen before cycle max. This has been tested over the Sunspot numbers but is not available for accurate testing beyond that as the cycle max is not known. 1830 and -530 are examples of this phenomena.

Described in previous articles Type “A” is nearly always stronger than Type “B” disturbances. Type “A” affecting the inner loop of the Sun’s path around the SSB and Type “B” affecting the outer loop. The Sun’s velocity is 100% higher when traveling the outer loop.

By matching the disturbance patterns with solar downturn strength I gave each disturbance a score. Disturbance’s that align with deep grand minima (on a constant basis throughout history) get the highest score and so on.

On the solar proxy graph at the top of this article I have recorded the strength of each disturbance group that comes along every 172 years average. This was achieved by scoring each individual disturbance and summing. The individual disturbances can be viewed at http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/5 and http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/1

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This table is a result of that process. The “Count” column being the sum of the individual disturbances for each 172 year centre. To plot this trend on the Solanki data it needs to be scaled and inverted. For the scale I tried to approximate the Solanki derived sunspot number and use a conversion process to do this within a set scale. For every increment of the “Count” I have associated it with 4 Solanki sunspots as seen on his graph. This gives a reliable method and displays the trend accurately. Once the conversion was done the data was entered into the Solanki spreadsheet.

Although the counting process is subject to the eye of the observer resulting in perhaps a slightly different Count, the overall trend will still be evident and should not vary greatly from my analysis. Future Counting could be performed more accurately by measuring the precise angles of the Jovians during individual disturbances and rating them according to a set scale. The ideal time to measure the angles is when Jupiter and Saturn are in opposition (measuring Neptune & Uranus angle in respect to Jupiter) for type “A” and when Jupiter and Saturn are at conjunction for type “B” disturbances. The position of the hump at disturbance is a direct result of the timing of Neptune and Uranus in respect to Jupiter.

Below is a table showing the conversion process.

The spreadsheets is available from http://www.landscheidt.info/images/solanki_sharp.xls

The Carbon 14 record (INTCAL98) used as a solar proxy as used by Solanki and Usoskin is sometimes called into doubt. There have been attempts to cross check the results using  beryllium 10 (10Be) comparing running means over different time periods. But now we have a new report that produces 9300 years of 10Be data that can be compared with the 14C record. Initial results show a very promising match up.

The new report which can be found here  http://www.leif.org/EOS/Holocene-TSI.pdf shows one graph in particular that can be used to cross check the 14C record. Click on graphs for a full size view.

The comparison graph is a first pass and should be extended the full 9300 years and if possible the new data needs to be merged with Solanki’s data in a spreadsheet. My method of comparison as follows: The 14C data is taken directly from the Solanki data and graphed via excel spreadsheet. The Steinhilber graph saved from the original document is traced onto a transparent gif image layer and saved then overlaid onto the original Solanki graph. The Steinhilber overlay is then rescaled for X & Y coordinates to match the original Solanki scale.

There are a few anomalies between the 2 data sets but overall a very good match is found. The 14C record is now confirmed with perhaps some minor anomalies but some confidence is expected. The planetary line ups with their disturbance to Angular Momentum that cause Grand Minima are now validated by another independent source.

Wednesday 24th June 2009 at 3:35pm at Gold Coast Hospital (Wed gold coast time) Carl Smith lost his battle with cancer. Its a very sad day for his family, friends, associates and myself. I didnt have a lot to do with Carl and respected his wish of not interrupting the remaining quality time that was left for him.

Carl will be sadly missed and I know a lot of people have spoken highly of him. Carl was the originator of this website and only gave up the day to day running when he learned of his severe illness. He will be remembered for perhaps making the biggest discovery in the Planetary Theory Arena, Jose and Landscheidt were in the ballpark but Carl nailed it with his Angular Momentum graph that today allows us to predict solar activity and Grand Minimum down to the solar cycle.

I will continue to progress Carl’s work , he was a great man.

May I pass on sincere condolences from us all to the Smith Family.

Geoff Sharp.

UPDATE:25 july 2009

Carl’s brother Dave is keen to ensure that Carl’s work wont be wasted. I personally wont let that happen and consider myself with a new life’s work.

Dave has kindly donated a new domain and webspace to further this cause which will be run in conjunction with the original landsheidt auditblogs site.

The new site will be a showcase for Carl’s discovery and the further work I intend to do on the same topic. The site has all the bells and whistles and I encourage all to register.

The new site can be found here: http://www.landscheidt.info