Comments on: Dr Landscheidt’s Solar Cycle 24 Prediction http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/ A Cycles Based Approach to Understanding Solar Activity & Climate Sat, 10 Jul 2010 07:58:16 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ By: Rosina http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-49 Rosina Sun, 19 Oct 2008 03:49:44 +0000 http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-49 Thank you for your site. I have found here much useful information...x Thank you for your site. I have found here much useful information…x

]]> By: Ulric Lyons http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-48 Ulric Lyons Mon, 13 Oct 2008 14:55:56 +0000 http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-48 John A. Jauregui, June 12th 1988 had a heliocentric alignment of Earth, Venus and Mercury, two days earlier, and nearly in the same direction there was an alignment of Uranus and Saturn, with Neptune behind that, about ten degrees out of line. I would describe this configuration as very augmented, and is what is behind the rapid rise of activity at this point in the cycle. John A. Jauregui, June 12th 1988 had a heliocentric alignment of Earth, Venus and Mercury, two days earlier, and nearly in the same direction there was an alignment of Uranus and Saturn, with Neptune behind that, about ten degrees out of line. I would describe this configuration as very augmented, and is what is behind the rapid rise of activity at this point in the cycle.

]]> By: John A. Jauregui http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-47 John A. Jauregui Fri, 10 Oct 2008 05:03:25 +0000 http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-47 I just returned from visiting Yellowstone and was struck by the devastation of the 1988 fires, which were preceeded by acute drought and record setting dry lightening. I began to wonder what solar activity occured leading up the 1988 fire storms. Solar cycle 22 started just a couple of years before that summer of drought and dry lightening. Check this out. Relative to other cycles, that solar cycle had 1) a very fast rise time - 2.8 years, 2) a very short cycle length - 9.7 years, 3) a high minimum sun spot number - 12.3, and 4) a high maximum sun spot number - 158.5 more: “Cycle 22 certainly provided us with many highlights. Early in the cycle the smoothed sunspot number (determined by the number of sunspots visible on the sun and used as the traditional measure of the cycle) climbed rapidly; in fact more rapidly than for any previously recorded cycle. This caused many to predict that it would eclipse Cycle 19 (peak sunspot number of 201) as the highest cycle on record. This was not to be as the sunspot number ceased climbing in early 1989 and reached a maximum in July of that year. Whilst not of record amplitude, Cycle 22 still rated as 4th of the recorded cycles and continued the run of recent large solar cycles (Cycles 18, 19 and 21 were all exceptional!). A very notable feature of Cycle 22 was that it had the shortest rise from minimum to maximum of any recorded cycle.” Material Prepared by Richard Thompson. © Copyright IPS - Radio and Space Services. I just returned from visiting Yellowstone and was struck by the devastation of the 1988 fires, which were preceeded by acute drought and record setting dry lightening. I began to wonder what solar activity occured leading up the 1988 fire storms. Solar cycle 22 started just a couple of years before that summer of drought and dry lightening. Check this out. Relative to other cycles, that solar cycle had 1) a very fast rise time – 2.8 years, 2) a very short cycle length – 9.7 years, 3) a high minimum sun spot number – 12.3, and 4) a high maximum sun spot number – 158.5

more:

“Cycle 22 certainly provided us with many highlights. Early in the cycle the smoothed sunspot number (determined by the number of sunspots visible on the sun and used as the traditional measure of the cycle) climbed rapidly; in fact more rapidly than for any previously recorded cycle. This caused many to predict that it would eclipse Cycle 19 (peak sunspot number of 201) as the highest cycle on record. This was not to be as the sunspot number ceased climbing in early 1989 and reached a maximum in July of that year. Whilst not of record amplitude, Cycle 22 still rated as 4th of the recorded cycles and continued the run of recent large solar cycles (Cycles 18, 19 and 21 were all exceptional!). A very notable feature of Cycle 22 was that it had the shortest rise from minimum to maximum of any recorded cycle.”
Material Prepared by Richard Thompson. © Copyright IPS – Radio and Space Services.

]]> By: Hannes http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-46 Hannes Sat, 04 Oct 2008 23:30:06 +0000 http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-46 You have built a good websiten You have built a good websiten

]]> By: geoff melbourne http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-45 geoff melbourne Sat, 04 Oct 2008 04:51:01 +0000 http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-45 I have just posted a thread on climate audit that i thought might be interesting here. Hi...while not sure on the Barycenter Theory I do think the Solar System could have an effect on sunspots. While visiting Carl Smith's site I came across a fantastic graph depicting the angular movement forces on the Sun from 1620 to 2180. http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/files/2007/05/sunssbam1620to2180.gif which i can use as a "planetary force" source. After comparing the graph with a Solar System viewer http://math-ed.com/Resources/GIS/Geometry_In_Space/java1/Temp/TLVisPOrbit.html I discovered several points. 1. The peaks and troughs in Carls' graph line up with sunspot maximums quite accurately (gets out of wack for awhile before 1840, is the sunspot data accurate?) 2. The disturbance in the graph at 2008, 1830 and 1650 coincides with Neptune Uranus and Jupiter in rough alignment with Saturn apposing. 3. This disturbance occurred in the Dalton, Maunder, Sporer and Wolf minimums...all approx 178 yrs apart. 4. Partial line ups can bring on less sunspots as at 1970 etc. The Neptune/Uranus effect I think is the major player in reduced sunspot activity and should prove accurate for cycle24. I also have a work in progress document showing the theory at http://users.beagle.com.au/geoffsharp/gasgiants.pdf and welcome objective comments. geoff sharp I have just posted a thread on climate audit that i thought might be interesting here.

Hi…while not sure on the Barycenter Theory I do think the Solar System could have an effect on sunspots. While visiting Carl Smith’s site I came across a fantastic graph depicting the angular movement forces on the Sun from 1620 to 2180. http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/files/2007/05/sunssbam1620to2180.gif which i can use as a “planetary force” source.

After comparing the graph with a Solar System viewer http://math-ed.com/Resources/GIS/Geometry_In_Space/java1/Temp/TLVisPOrbit.html I discovered several points.

1. The peaks and troughs in Carls’ graph line up with sunspot maximums quite accurately (gets out of wack for awhile before 1840, is the sunspot data accurate?)

2. The disturbance in the graph at 2008, 1830 and 1650 coincides with Neptune Uranus and Jupiter in rough alignment with Saturn apposing.

3. This disturbance occurred in the Dalton, Maunder, Sporer and Wolf minimums…all approx 178 yrs apart.

4. Partial line ups can bring on less sunspots as at 1970 etc.

The Neptune/Uranus effect I think is the major player in reduced sunspot activity and should prove accurate for cycle24.

I also have a work in progress document showing the theory at http://users.beagle.com.au/geoffsharp/gasgiants.pdf and welcome objective comments.

geoff sharp

]]> By: Ulric Lyons http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-44 Ulric Lyons Fri, 26 Sep 2008 14:49:31 +0000 http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-44 Geoff, ref. post 24, I did not give an accurate description of cycle of Jupiter, at `Saturn opposite Uranus and Neptune` alignments. It actually goes full circle from, J with N+U, J square to N+U, J with Saturn, J square to N+U, and back to J with N+U. It is through the MWP that it was opposite N+U, on the same side as Saturn. Geoff, ref. post 24, I did not give an accurate description of cycle of Jupiter, at `Saturn opposite Uranus and Neptune` alignments. It actually goes full circle from, J with N+U, J square to N+U, J with Saturn, J square to N+U, and back to J with N+U. It is through the MWP that it was opposite N+U, on the same side as Saturn.

]]> By: Ulric Lyons http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-43 Ulric Lyons Wed, 24 Sep 2008 16:11:04 +0000 http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-43 That should have said, first, second and fourth. That should have said, first, second and fourth.

]]> By: Ulric Lyons http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-42 Ulric Lyons Wed, 24 Sep 2008 16:08:40 +0000 http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-42 Geoff, as I have shown in my last post, alignments of Neptune and Uranus, can result in lower `or` higher sunspot levels, depending where Jupiter and Saturn are in relation to N+U. Here is the reference for the sunspot history reconstruction; ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/solar_variability/solanki2004-ssn.txt View the dates 425AD, 286AD, 106AD, 75AD, etc, for the high sunspot levels, the first, third and fourth of these dates are the `Roman climatic Maximums` 3, 2 and 1, respectively. Geoff, as I have shown in my last post, alignments of Neptune and Uranus, can result in lower `or` higher sunspot levels, depending where Jupiter and Saturn are in relation to N+U. Here is the reference for the sunspot history reconstruction; ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/solar_variability/solanki2004-ssn.txt
View the dates 425AD, 286AD, 106AD, 75AD, etc, for the high sunspot levels, the first, third and fourth of these dates are the `Roman climatic Maximums` 3, 2 and 1, respectively.

]]> By: Carl http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-41 Carl Wed, 24 Sep 2008 05:53:08 +0000 http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-41 Hey guys, keep up the good work. I am too ill to do much any more (see my new post), but encourage you to continue the good work you are doing. Here is a graph you might find useful: http://plasmaresources.com/ozwx/SSB/images/SSB_179y_cycles_995-2985AD.jpg Hey guys, keep up the good work.

I am too ill to do much any more (see my new post), but encourage you to continue the good work you are doing.

Here is a graph you might find useful:

http://plasmaresources.com/ozwx/SSB/images/SSB_179y_cycles_995-2985AD.jpg

]]> By: geoff melbourne http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-40 geoff melbourne Wed, 24 Sep 2008 01:37:26 +0000 http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2007/06/01/dr-landscheidts-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-40 thanks Ulric....it is very interesting isnt it. all the planets have an effect but Neptune/Uranus seem to be the drivers of the very low sunspot numbers thru history. I also noticed the alignment goes out of sync near the medieval warm period which is interesting but i need to do more work on it. thanks Ulric….it is very interesting isnt it. all the planets have an effect but Neptune/Uranus seem to be the drivers of the very low sunspot numbers thru history. I also noticed the alignment goes out of sync near the medieval warm period which is interesting but i need to do more work on it.

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