Landscheidt Cycles Research

Spin Orbit coupling is the transfer of orbital angular momentum to spin momentum between orbiting bodies. Total angular momentum (AM) is made up of orbital & spin momentum and both must balance. If there is an imbalance between solar AM and Planet AM we might have the missing AM to fuel a rotation change at the Sun. In a recent paper by Ian Wilson et al  “Does Spin Orbit Coupling Between the Sun and Jovian Planets Govern the Solar Cycle?” Ian discusses a viable theory of spin orbit coupling but also states there is no mechanical link. Perhaps now there is a new line of inquiry that may provide this mechanical link.

AM must always be conserved and this basic principle of the universe is seen all around us, one example is the Earth/Moon system where the reducing rotation speed of the Earth caused by tidal friction sees a conservation where the Earth/Moon distance increases by about 5cm a year.

Spin orbit coupling could be one area that may provide a link between the Planetary motions and a changing rotation speed of the Sun, basically if there is a mismatch in orbital AM it can be transferred to spin momentum (rotation speed). The Sun has it own angular momentum as it orbits around the centre of the solar system. 99% of this comes from the gravitational affects from the combined positions of the Jovian planets, this is clearly seen in Carl’s famous graph. Each planet also has its own AM which is  mass x distance x velocity, and as I have shown previously AM can be calculated using the SSB (solar system barycenter) or the Sun as the orbit axis point. If we measure the planet AM it can be compared against the solar AM and if done correctly any variation or missing AM can be determined. In the past this has been done by wiggle matching which is comparing 2 graphs, rescaling one to fit the other and comparing. This method does not provide mathematical results and the detail can be hidden in the scale of the graph.

I have always wanted to do my own comparison and in particular use the Sun as the orbit axis point when calculating planet AM. Gerry and I have collaborated on this project and combined our skill sets to produce an outcome.

To compare planet AM with Solar AM the inertial frame should be the same. The planet inertial frame calculated from JPL was another surprising result which looks to suggest it is in the barycentric frame rather that heliocentric. For our project we needed to make allowances. The project calculates planet AM using the Sun as the orbit axis point and the solar AM is calculated using the SSB as the axis point, then the solar AM is subtracted from the planet AM and the results recorded, Gerry explains ” By subtracting the solar orbital AM, we are making a simple Galilean transformation from the barycentric inertial frame for the freefall motion of the Sun about the solar system barycenter to the inertial frame of the Sun itself.  The reason we have to do this is that your planet position and velocity vectors are heliocentric.  Coordinates, and properties like AM derived from them, have to be in the same inertial frame as the inertial body (or alternatively a barycenter) to which they are referred.  That’s why I was surprised to see that the heliocentric Horizons data was referred to the barycentric frame used by the JPL DE ephemerides.”

The planet AM values were carefully calculated specifying the planet barycenter coordinates where applicable, and using planet mass measurements (13 decimal places) and velocity/distance coordinates xzy from the JPL Horizons database. The asteroids Ceres, Juno, Vesta and Pallas have been included. The initial planet AM values when summed showed a moving variation (not a constant as some have suggested) of each daily measure and when wiggle matched, lined up precisely with the solar AM curve, BUT there is detail missing that must be uncovered.

The next step was to subtract the solar AM from the planet AM to achieve the same inertial frame. The finished data showed a remarkable result that is still a work in progress value but at this stage looks promising. We have calculated an underlying fluctuating AM value that nearly follows the same curve as previously calculated by Carl. It makes up roughly .0000035% of Jupiter’s AM and could represent .2% of the average solar AM. These calculations are still in progress.

Here we have a comparison of Solar AM and the Planet AM variance…there is no way we can wiggle match these two data sets, the divergence points are of particular interest. The spreadsheet will be available in full detail shortly.

UPDATE: Some food for thought, below is the solar AM vs solar velocity graph (another wiggle match attempt). I have mentioned before that the two curves go out of sync which is strange for 2 data sets that are reliant on one another. It may be just a result of the mix between distance and velocity. The bigger variances look to line up with the bigger variances on the Sun vs missing AM graph.

If there proves to be an imbalance between solar and planet AM it could be traded off in velocity or spin or distance. Distance is unlikely and as seen the velocity does not follow a consistent pattern (although it is still a pattern). The first disturbance of the set (green arrows) sees a decrease in velocity, the second disturbance shows an increase…its not uniform. The blue dots also showing a divergence in the same places as the previous graph.

A presentation by G.E.Pease

The Sunspot cycle which averages 11 years is still a mystery, with no real conclusive science that has been put forward with any certainty on what controls the varying length of the Sunspot cycle.

Previously in my Neptune/Uranus article we discussed the work of Desmoulins who has graphed the “most aligned days” of Jupiter, Earth and Venus which shows a good correlation with the sunspot record. The two sets of data can drift away slightly but have always kept in sync in the last 400 years. Currently The most aligned days is lagging behind the  Sunspot record slightly and going by past occurrences should catch up during SC24 max. Hung as also done some similar research showing the same result as well as Ulric Lyons who presented his case on this blog last year.

Now we have another study by G.E.Pease which backs up this previous work and provides many diagrams and tables to support the Planet Tidal Theory. The presentation is in powerpoint format and can be downloaded HERE

Desmoulins graph: green peaks =JEV most aligned days

Several months ago I attempted to find some sort of data or graph on the angular momentum (AM) of the Jovian planets. After an exhaustive search it seemed as though nothing would be forthcoming. While there have been attempts to graph the Jovians using the solar system barycenter (SSB) as the orbit axis point, my research has suggested all the solar system planets orbit the Sun. Using the SSB as an axis point might be useful for some analysis, but it still remains an inaccurate method of calculating a planets AM if the orbit axis point is the Sun. The orbit axis point of the Jovians is still a contentious issue, but I believe the results of this project will add further evidence that indeed the Sun is king.

Using JPL Horizons I can retrieve the necessary XYZ coordinates and velocities and plug them into Gerry’s angular momentum formula. Many thanks go to Gerry, this project would not have been possible without him.

It must be noted that the JPL data for each planet uses the Sun centre for calculating distance. Technically this is still not correct and the Sun/Planet barycenter would be more accurate but at this stage I am not aware of this data being in existence.

Jupiter Angular Momentum Graph.

Very evident is the influence of Saturn along with the timing of the Jupiter perihelion (closest orbit point) and aphelion (furthest). The blue line is a moving average with the background grey areas being the actual data taken every 5 days. Because the centre of Sun was used as the axis point the actual data is a little choppy (theory). Although the modulation of the planet AM is obvious, very little of this change would be felt at the Sun. For further data on the Jupiter axis point and orbit perturbations see my previous article here: http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2009/04/03/which-point-do-the-jovian-planets-orbit/

LINK.

Although over a shorter period the Planet AM graphs using the SSB as axis point showing a clear difference…http://arnholm.org/astro/index.htm

Neptune Angular Momentum Graph.

The Neptune angular momentum graph is quite different, being on the outskirts of the solar system the data is less choppy and the clear influence of Jupiter every 13 years approx is quite staggering. The majority of Neptune’s orbit perturbations are in line with Jupiter, only the modulation of the peaks and troughs is influenced by the remaining Jovians.

Notice the very clear difference between the 2 axis points. Source http://arnholm.org/astro/index.htm

The SSB derived Neptune graph is clearly a product of the sun moving away from the SSB and dragging Neptune with it, this gives a false reading in the Neptune distance measurement which can also be seen on the Jupiter SSB graph at 1970. I believe the latest Jovian AM graphs prove the existence of the Jovian orbit axis point and also show the correct planet AM data (as near as possible to date). Another outcome of this research will be to nail down exactly what proportion each planet contributes to the overall AM at the Sun. The project is still incomplete but the Jupiter proportion looks to be about 60%. Saturn and Uranus graphs to follow.

UPDATE: P.A.Semi has a paper at http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0903/0903.5009.pdf

where he produces graphs of all planets calculating planet AM using both axis points. His data is in complete agreement with mine (using Gerry’s formula) and he also shows long term views of the SSB axis graphs.

This long term view of Neptune is particularly interesting, its shows the 172 year down spike each time Uranus is in conjunction, which moves Neptune closest to the SSB and also shows a background trend. The elephant in the room though is that all SSB graphs show a modulation of planet/SSB distance, where as the Sun centered graphs show the planetary perturbations. The failure of the SSB centered graphs to show the all important planetary perturbations suggests to me that all our solar system planets have the Sun as their axis point.

Gerry and I are currently working on a project looking for the missing AM that could finally give a solid link to the Spin-Orbit Coupling debate. Our initial results are very encouraging but we need to double check the data…stay tuned.

Click on pic for larger view

Reader Ron De Haan suggested a graph showing future Angular Momentum Disturbance Strength might be of interest. We only have JPL data out to 3000AD so this is the current limit, but the outcome is indeed very interesting. If the Solar activity follows the Angular Momentum trend we are headed for another Medieval Warming Period type era on even a grander scale.

After the Landscheidt Minimum which will be short and sweet, there looks to be another Dalton type event which is not considered all that strong. After that the planet will stay on a warm plateau for hundreds of years, lets hope we have learned by then that the warming we will enjoy is a natural state. The graph shows us how unusual the preceding strong Grand Minima are in our history, which was ruled by strong Type “A” disturbances or as Gerry calls them “Retrograde Bumps”. From here on the AM strength is moving to weak and gradually the disturbances are moving back to Type “B” which are known for periods of reasonable solar stability. So there is no need for pessimism, our children will have it good.

The JPL data used to create the AM graphs as per Carl’s Graph has a range from -3000 to 3000, but I am working on another quantifying method using purely the Jovian planet angles which should allow us to check against the complete Holocene record as well as looking out as far as necessary. Thanks to Tayla Sharp for helping with the graph.

This is the first time Angular Momentum Disturbance Strength has been quantified and is depicted by the purple line in the above graph. This purple line shows how Angular Momentum Disturbance Strength is the driver of solar downturns, it is the background curve of the proxy records. The method used is a preliminary method using visual observation of each disturbance of the graph period. With the discovery of Carl’s graph we are now able to easily see the different types of disturbance that comes in groups every 172 years average.

These disturbances always line up with periods of solar downturn. The Solanki/Steinhilber data shows regular solar downturns that vary in intensity, by observing the shapes of the disturbances that align with these downturns we are able to see a pattern that is repeatable. An example of this is the regular appearance of strong Type “A” disturbance occurring at times of severe grand minima. Weak Type “B” disturbance always is associated with very minor grand minima. There is no indication of this pattern not following suit except in the rare occasion of strong Type “A” disturbance not fully firing when not meeting the “Wilson’s Law” test. This test states that for a disturbance to fire the Jupiter/Saturn opposition or conjunction must happen before cycle max. This has been tested over the Sunspot numbers but is not available for accurate testing beyond that as the cycle max is not known. 1830 and -530 are examples of this phenomena.

Described in previous articles Type “A” is nearly always stronger than Type “B” disturbances. Type “A” affecting the inner loop of the Sun’s path around the SSB and Type “B” affecting the outer loop. The Sun’s velocity is 100% higher when traveling the outer loop.

By matching the disturbance patterns with solar downturn strength I gave each disturbance a score. Disturbance’s that align with deep grand minima (on a constant basis throughout history) get the highest score and so on.

On the solar proxy graph at the top of this article I have recorded the strength of each disturbance group that comes along every 172 years average. This was achieved by scoring each individual disturbance and summing. The individual disturbances can be viewed at http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/5 and http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/1

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This table is a result of that process. The “Count” column being the sum of the individual disturbances for each 172 year centre. To plot this trend on the Solanki data it needs to be scaled and inverted. For the scale I tried to approximate the Solanki derived sunspot number and use a conversion process to do this within a set scale. For every increment of the “Count” I have associated it with 4 Solanki sunspots as seen on his graph. This gives a reliable method and displays the trend accurately. Once the conversion was done the data was entered into the Solanki spreadsheet.

Although the counting process is subject to the eye of the observer resulting in perhaps a slightly different Count, the overall trend will still be evident and should not vary greatly from my analysis. Future Counting could be performed more accurately by measuring the precise angles of the Jovians during individual disturbances and rating them according to a set scale. The ideal time to measure the angles is when Jupiter and Saturn are in opposition (measuring Neptune & Uranus angle in respect to Jupiter) for type “A” and when Jupiter and Saturn are at conjunction for type “B” disturbances. The position of the hump at disturbance is a direct result of the timing of Neptune and Uranus in respect to Jupiter.

Below is a table showing the conversion process.

The spreadsheets is available from http://www.landscheidt.info/images/solanki_sharp.xls

The Carbon 14 record (INTCAL98) used as a solar proxy as used by Solanki and Usoskin is sometimes called into doubt. There have been attempts to cross check the results using  beryllium 10 (10Be) comparing running means over different time periods. But now we have a new report that produces 9300 years of 10Be data that can be compared with the 14C record. Initial results show a very promising match up.

The new report which can be found here  http://www.leif.org/EOS/Holocene-TSI.pdf shows one graph in particular that can be used to cross check the 14C record. Click on graphs for a full size view.

The comparison graph is a first pass and should be extended the full 9300 years and if possible the new data needs to be merged with Solanki’s data in a spreadsheet. My method of comparison as follows: The 14C data is taken directly from the Solanki data and graphed via excel spreadsheet. The Steinhilber graph saved from the original document is traced onto a transparent gif image layer and saved then overlaid onto the original Solanki graph. The Steinhilber overlay is then rescaled for X & Y coordinates to match the original Solanki scale.

There are a few anomalies between the 2 data sets but overall a very good match is found. The 14C record is now confirmed with perhaps some minor anomalies but some confidence is expected. The planetary line ups with their disturbance to Angular Momentum that cause Grand Minima are now validated by another independent source.

Wednesday 24th June 2009 at 3:35pm at Gold Coast Hospital (Wed gold coast time) Carl Smith lost his battle with cancer. Its a very sad day for his family, friends, associates and myself. I didnt have a lot to do with Carl and respected his wish of not interrupting the remaining quality time that was left for him.

Carl will be sadly missed and I know a lot of people have spoken highly of him. Carl was the originator of this website and only gave up the day to day running when he learned of his severe illness. He will be remembered for perhaps making the biggest discovery in the Planetary Theory Arena, Jose and Landscheidt were in the ballpark but Carl nailed it with his Angular Momentum graph that today allows us to predict solar activity and Grand Minimum down to the solar cycle.

I will continue to progress Carl’s work , he was a great man.

May I pass on sincere condolences from us all to the Smith Family.

Geoff Sharp.

UPDATE:25 july 2009

Carl’s brother Dave is keen to ensure that Carl’s work wont be wasted. I personally wont let that happen and consider myself with a new life’s work.

Dave has kindly donated a new domain and webspace to further this cause which will be run in conjunction with the original landsheidt auditblogs site.

The new site will be a showcase for Carl’s discovery and the further work I intend to do on the same topic. The site has all the bells and whistles and I encourage all to register.

The new site can be found here: http://www.landscheidt.info

Predicting solar cycle modulation using angular momentum is relatively easy, but like any prediction it needs to be tested. Interested parties who rely on solar activity predictions might like to make a copy for future reference and compare with the regular methods of prediction which typically only go out for one cycle, which can hamper long term planning in some industries.

One thing we cannot predict is solar cycle length, so this prediction is more about modulation rather than precise timing of upcoming solar cycles. One other factor in play is whether “Wilson’s Law” will contribute to future grand minima, by 2190 I predict we will know the mechanics of this law. As can be seen here and on the 11000 year 14C graph there are no high solar activity peaks at times of low angular momentum.

There is a possible case for a repeat of the 1870 type reduction in solar activity at 2050, but this time around the disturbance is very weak as the Jupiter/Saturn angles continue to weaken. On most occasions we are presented with 3 disturbances per cycle but in the current cycle we may only get 2, SC28 & SC29 remain the subject of more research.

Below is Carl’s now famous original graph showing angular momentum in a different form. The green arrows showing times of angular momentum disturbance.

Its been a long time coming, but this graph is an easier way to appreciate the effect the outer planets have on our Sun. This is the same information Carl used in his now famous graph, but instead of a sine wave we have the absolute power shown in a conventional form. Angular momentum can be measured in different ways leading to confusion. Now we have a reliable power guide directed at the Sun from the Jovian planets.

Source: Carl’s JPL data assuming 2E+47 as a zero point and inverting all points below.

This next graph shows the sunspot cycle superimposed on the angular momentum strength…showing strong correlations. Notice how after a sudden slowdown the high angular momentum peaks are not fully utilized.

UPDATE 11/05/09:
The same graph but with the solar orbital velocity as it orbits the SSB overlaid. This shows the connection between Angular Momentum and the fluctuating speed of the Sun as it orbits the solar system barycenter, this orbit path being controlled by the outer planets. Conservation of angular momentum has consequences.

Below: This time I have compared the Sun’s velocity with the typical AM graph as per Carl….the altered velocity obvious at 1650, 1830 and 2010 which also correspond with radical Solar path changes caused by the outer planets. The Sun’s orbit speed is surprisingly slow and goes from around 30 km/h up to around 60 km/h (100% increase) when Angular Momentum is at its highest. This still allows the Sun to move over 1.5 million km from the SSB over 5 years. Note when the two lines diverge there is a corresponding slow down in solar activity.

This graph showing the velocity of the Sun is a product of Angular Momentum (red line = velocity). Interestingly velocity can exceed AM and also not use the full potential of AM. A conservation is required? Is there another force involved that modulates the usage of AM?

Now the question is, are there any other consequences, is the changing velocity also changing the rotation speed of the Sun as well. I have been searching for solar rotation rates but it seems we are unable to record this presently, there are no fixed points on the surface of the Sun which has a highly movable outer layer. The idea of a solar rotation change due to the planets is highly speculative, but until we can get an accurate measurement of solar rotation it cant be ruled out. If we could record the solar rotation accurately this discussion would be over…but we CAN record the rotation rate of Earth, and I postulate on the following with some brain food…… The Earth’s rotation rate is calculated by recording the Length of Day which shows our longest days (slower speed) are always in January. Theories suggest this is because of weather patterns that always occur in January but it also coincides with our planets fastest velocity which shows a very regular pattern each January.

Interesting pattern similar to the Jovian orbits…expecting earths orbit to follow the same trend.

Length of day graph from USNO showing the yearly rotation speed pattern of our planet. The slowest days are in January each year, which coincides with our closest approach to the Sun in our slightly elliptical orbit.

This is an intriguing question, I have read many different opinions but nothing to clearly substantiate their claims. Others in the Scientific arena when pressed are afraid to give an answer. Checking the JPL data which is an ephemeris produced by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory shows that Jupiter certainly doesn’t orbit around the SSB (although at first because of an error I made, it looked as if it did) and probably orbits around the Jupiter/Sun barycenter. After checking the Jupiter/Sun distances (which I will refer to as the radius vector which is quite different from the semi-major axis) through JPL it became obvious there was a substantial variance each orbit that was measured each time in the same place. Originally I saw this as an opportunity to look for a solid link between Angular Momentum and the Solar modulation re the planets, but soon discovered Jupiter and all the other planets have a modulating Perihelion/Aphelion distance. The quest was on the find out why and involved many weeks searching for any data I could find. Others on this site got involved and I even emailed an Astronomer but to no avail, very sparse detail available. Dr Svalgaard suggested it was a result of planetary perturbations and while correct his understanding was also far from complete. Below is an account of the progress along with what I think is the complete answer to what perturbs Jupiter and how.

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My research shows the Jupiter/Sun distance varies on average 300,000 km each orbit of Jupiter. Check graphic above.
The Earth is seen to orbit the Sun directly. If we use NASA’s JPL data it shows the Earth/Sun distance is varying by 0.0001AU per year (approx 15000 km). The AU measure is the average distance between the Sun and Earth. If we measure The Earth to SSB (solar system barycenter) distance it shows a much larger variance.
What I have done is measure the Jupiter/Sun distance at exactly the same point in the elliptical orbit of Jupiter each 4331.572 days, this should isolate any aphelion/perihelion changes. I also measured the Jupiter/SSB distances.

As can be seen in the first graphic there is a large variance each orbit between BOTH measurements (Sun & SSB). This makes it hard to pinpoint any point of orbit, although the variances seem smaller on average with the Jupiter/Sun data. I also compared the Heliocentric longitude (angle away from Sun) and found each Jupiter/Sun reading had an angle of 359 deg, but the solar position at perihelion does return very closely to the same position each orbit.

The above graph was made from reliable data by blogger JimP (thanks for the spreadsheet). Once blown up it shows some remarkable detail. It shows the Perihelion distance (closest point) for each Jupiter orbit over 400 years. There is a definite pattern, what causes this modulation? The movement between the closest and furthest perihelion is 1.2 million km’s , the Sun is capable of moving 1.5 million km’s from the barycenter, Neptune’s radius vector moves by 1.4 million km. Importantly the corresponding movement at the other end (aphelion) is the same value on each orbit but in the opposite direction, if one end shortens the other end lengthens.

Jupiter/Sun distances 1600-2020 with Jup/Sat conjuncture, Jup/Sat opposition and Jup/Sat quadrature (square) positions plotted for every third occurrence. Note the phase change around 1880. If the Variance in distance is caused by angular momentum J/S conjunction & J/S opposition both produce high angular momentum. Regular reader lgl and myself suspect the other Jovians need to come into the equation, but what is needed is a new method of displaying angular momentum other than Carl’s graph. A total strength with both J/S conjuncture and J/S opposition shown as high points instead of a sine wave is required, manipulation of the current JPL data via a spreadsheet can do it. Update: There is a new article covering this.

Saturn/Sun distance showing the same 60 yr pattern as Jupiter. After 1880 they are in unison with Jupiter but not before. There is a reason for these fluctuations but I have not found any literature on this phenomena.

UPDATE 13/05/09:

This diagram has been adapted from “Linkages between solar activity, climate predictability and water resource development” Alexander et al. Bailey has been criticized for claiming the Sun-Earth distance varies by the Sun-SSB distance, although not correct there is a fluctuation caused in the same manner as per Jupiter but to a smaller degree….0.0001 AU.

UPDATE 27/05/09: Here is another suggestion Dr. Svalgaard has provided to explain the modulating Jupiter Perihelion.

“The general principle is that to change the orbit, you have to apply a force along the orbit, so Saturn’s effect is largest when it is ‘to the side’ (approximately quadrature I think the astrological term is), rather than in conjunction. All of this has been understood for 250 years, and there are no other forces involved. Saturn doesn’t ‘push’ (gravity is attractive, not repulsive). And the Sun is not ‘dragging’: the force is always along the line connecting two bodies.
To recapitulate how Kepler’s second law works: To move an orbit out a bit (increase perihelion distance if you are near perihelion), you apply a force along the orbit in the same direction as the movement of the planet, e.g. by Saturn being ahead of Jupiter. That force produces a ‘delta-v’ (google it), which ‘lifts’ the orbit a bit out of the gravitational well, to another (higher) orbit, where it actually moves slower than before. Because of the periodic movements, the lifting is counteracted over time by a similar but oppositely directed movement, so that the semi-axis stays constant. This takes a couple of orbits to accumulate, so you have to consider the integrated effects over many years.”

There is substantial merit in Dr. Svalgaard’s rejigged explanation, but there still remains some pertinent questions. The explanation works well for perturbations occurring in the 1/2 to 3/4 region before Perihelion, but perhaps not so well in others. Dr. Svalgaard explains its a matter of the smaller background oscillations that make it hard to track the source of the perturbation. This is plausible but maybe a little weak and may be the reason it is near impossible to find any reliable data on this topic via the web. In particular I have questions why the “force along the orbit” fails to work when Jupiter approaches Perihelion and actually looks to have an opposite effect. Remember, when Jupiter & Saturn are in conjunction the Perihelion distance is at its shortest, but as you can see in the following diagrams the substantial pull along the orbit fails to elevate Jupiter’s orbit to a higher state.

The red dots signifies Perihelion in this 1762 example:

I wanted to see the perturbation affects plotted with successive orbits to see how the planets contribute to Jupiter’s orbit changes. Although fairly easy when you know a couple of tricks (thanks to Dr. Svalgaard) this task took me many days. I plotted the JPL data into excel and once the orbit was expanded to a size too big to display here it was easy to see each individual orbit. I was lucky with my data selection because it included a very strong perturbation of the 1987 Perihelion. The orbit has Jupiter doing a fly past Saturn, Uranus and Neptune before Perihelion which manages to take it away from its more normal path by 6 million kilometers. Once Jupiter passes all 3 planets its orbit is dramatically “braked” which brings it back into line around Perihelion, but still manages a very long perihelion distance. This is a good example of the perturbation theory in practice.

The corresponding planetary view shows the relative positions of planets which line up with the above average perturbation.

So do we have a situation where the perturbation theory works in some parts of the orbit only? Could other forces be overriding this perturbation? The orbit changing mechanics have been described as speeding up the planets velocity (I have serious reservations that this occurs) which raises it up the gravity well to a higher orbit before settling into a slower overall velocity.
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UPDATE:After much research I think I finally have the cause for Jupiter’s Perihelion distance modulation….and it surprising how little is known or published in this area. The above example is not worded very well and leads you to think an acceleration lifts the orbit higher then slows the velocity (that’s at least how I read it), from what I now understand it actually happens in reverse…the acceleration moves the orbit closer (following Kelper’s 2nd Law) but then unlike a rocket using boost, Jupiter is then immediately subjected to deceleration from Saturn’s gravity which slows velocity in turn lengthening the radius vector or raising Jupiter to a higher orbit. As Jupiter moves further away from Saturn the Sun takes over and reins in its sibling and waits for the next perturbation. So now it becomes obvious, and completely explains why a Jupiter/Saturn conjunction causes a short Perihelion, Jupiter is always in acceleration mode during this lineup which causes it to move closer and the plotted orbit agrees. Also of note, Neptune and Uranus also help out and can be strong when together as we see elsewhere on this site.

The orbit spreadsheet is able here: http://users.beagle.com.au/geoffsharp/jup_orbit1940-2009.xls