THEORY:

1) The SS cycle is caused by heliocentric syzygies of Jupiter, Earth and Venus. The average time between the tightest alignments over 100yrs. is 11.086yrs. The alignments alternate between E opposite V in line with J in one cycle, and E and V together in line with J, in the next cycle, in sync with the magnetic reversal of the Sun.

2) The position of the center of each maximum moves relative to the tightest alignments, earlier if the cycle is augmented, and later if the cycle is diminished. C3 to C8 is a good example of this.

3) The amplitude of each cycle is governed by a) the relative positions of Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus, and, b) the positions of E and V in relation to J, S and U.

4) The peaks on every cycle are largely due to syzygies of E+V, J+E, J+V and stelliums of all three. Hence the SS record can be seen to be a recording of these alignments, which usually can be correlated to stronger monthly temperature anomalies.

PROJECTIONS:

Maximum center for C24 estimated at 1yr. before the alignment center = early 2013. It will be augmented from 2010 to 2013, with peaks above C23, strongly in 2010, with August and October being likely dates for large solar flares.

The relative positions of U,S,J,E and V start to fall into diminished configurations from late 2013/early 2014, leading to a lower sunspot count in second half of the cycle. This will be accompanied by increasingly lower global temperatures from 2014 to 2020. A good measure of this can be seen by looking back 179yrs on the CET series:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/CR_data/Daily/HadCET_act.txt
ie., lookat years 1835 to 1841 for 2014 to 2020.

Alignments dates:

JEV syzygies:
08 09 16
09 02 08
09 07 14
10 04 22
10 09 29 very strong
11 03 03
11 12 09
12 05 19
12 10 26
13 08 13
14 01 07
14 06 13
15 03 15
15 08 15

VE syzygies:
08 06 08
09 03 27
10 01 11
10 10 11
11 08 16
12 06 06
13 03 28
14 01 11
14 10 25
15 08 15

JE syzygies:
08 07 09
09 01 24
09 08 14
10 02 28
10 09 21
11 04 06
11 10 29
12 05 13
12 12 03
13 06 19
14 01 05
14 07 24
15 02 06
15 08 26

View alignments:

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Solar

Linkages between solar activity, climate predictability and water resource development
by W J R Alexander, F Bailey, D B Bredenkamp, A van der Merwe and N Willemse

Abstract:

This study is based on the numerical analysis of the properties of routinely observed hydrometeorological data which in South Africa alone is collected at a rate of more than half a million station days per year, with some records approaching 100 continuous years in length. The analysis of this data demonstrates an unequivocal synchronous linkage between these processes in South Africa and elsewhere, and solar activity. This confirms observations and reports by others in many countries during the past 150 years. It is also shown with a high degree of assurance that there is a synchronous linkage between the statistically significant, 21-year periodicity in these processes and the acceleration and deceleration of the sun as it moves through galactic space. Despite a diligent search, no evidence could be found of trends in the data that could be attributed to human activities. It is essential that this information be accommodated in water resource development and operation procedures in the years ahead.

I will expand on this as soon as I find the time.

Abstract: Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun’s oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove skillful as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun’s orbital motion, have turned out correct as for instance the prediction of the last three El Niños years before the respective event.

If Dr. Landscheidt is correct about this, we are about to enter an extended period of much reduced solar activity and therefore an extended period of global cooling, which will offer the first real world test of the IPCC’s CO2 forced global warming claims. On the downside of this, a return to climate conditions not experienced since about 1670 by the year 2030 will bring much hardship to millions, as many of the world’s foodbowls fail due to extreme cold, while demand for fossil fuels will increase just so people can survive the extreme cold in higher latitudes.

Unfortunately, the current obsession with global warming pseudoscience combined with hefty increases in the price of carbon use being planned and/or implemented in various countries means that very few will be prepared for the sudden significant downturn in temperatures likely to begin manifesting during the next few years, and as is so often the case, the poor will be the ones that suffer most due to the incompetence of certain prominent scientists prepared to over state the soundness of their science on the basis of a prejudicial belief, combined with a well orchestrated media campaign that has convinced much of the public and policymakers of the need to make huge sacrifices in order to ‘save the planet’ from a human induced fever that in fact probably only exists in the minds of the ‘true believers’.

The rest of this post summarises this important paper, with a lengthy extract of what I consider to be the key part of the content – of course my summary is not a substute for reading the actual paper!

Dr. Landscheidt introduces this paper with discussion of the IPCC position on global warming and points to a growing list of publications showing a solar-climate connection.

He rounds up his introduction with a discussion of solar irradiance, and how eruptional activity and solar wind have a much stronger effect than irradiance, noting that the solar magnetic flux has increased by a factor of 2.3 in the 20th century corresponding with an 0.6C rise on global temperature, and how the solar flux energy is transferred to the Earth via magnetic and charged particle effects that cause circulation changes that propagate from the stratosphere downwards throough the atmosphere.

He goes on to further discuss the impact of solar eruptions on weather and climate, presenting research from Vostok consistantly showing a strong rise in temperature usually accompanied by a decrease in pressure after forbrush events, and from Oman showing that d18o from a dated stalagmite as a proxy for monsoonal activity closely resembles C14 from dated tree rings as a proxy for frequency and strength of solar eruptions over a period of more than 3000 years.

Next he discusses the correlation of the length of the 11 year cycle and northern hemisphere temperatures as per Christensen and Lassen 1991, and the fact that nearly all Gleissberg minima back to 300 A.D. coincided with cool climate in the Northern Hemisphere, and that Gleissberg maxima went along with warm climate.

He moves on to the predictable relationship between solar eruptions and global temperature as per Adler and Elías (2000), and notes that: “Thejll and Lassen (2000) draw the conclusion that the impact of solar activity on climate, prevailing for centuries, suddenly is no longer valid. Jumping to such a conclusion is not justified. Thejll and Lassen do not take into consideration that temperature lags solar activity by several years.”

He continues with a discussion of the aa-index of geomagnetic activity and shows that global temperature follows the aa-index curve with a lag of about 4 to 8 years, the only exception being the period of increased volcanic activity in the 1940′s, and with the oceans being a possible candidate for where the energy is stored which creates the lag.

Here is Dr Landscheidt’s ‘Figure 6′ graph from the paper:

Fig. 6: The solid curve shows the aa-index of geomagnetic activity, reflecting the effect of energetic solar eruptions near earth. The dashed curve plots a combination of global land air and sea surface temperature anomalies. The yearly data were subjected to repeated three-point smoothing. Temperature lags aa by 4 to 8 years, but follows the undulations of the aa-curve. The connection between the leading aa-extrema and the following temperature maxima or minima is highlighted by identical numbers. A disturbance around 1940 points to exceptional internal forcing.

And ‘Figure 7′ which extends the results of ‘Figure 6′:

Fig. 7: Extension of the data in Fig. 6. The aa-curve reaches

its highest maximum, marked by number 7, around 1990 and shows a steep decline afterwars. Allowing for a lag of 8 years, a maximum in the curve of global temperature should have occurred around 1998. This was the year with the highest temperature observed since the establishment of international meteorological services. This relationship points to protracted global cooling. As will be shown, solar activity is expected to decline for three decades. This contradicts the contention maintained by Thjell and Lassen (2000) and IPCC supporters that the sun’s impact on climate has faded away since decades.

He moves on to discuss Gleissberg cycles, climate changes as revealed by isotope anylysis of ice cores, and how there are strong indications of a dependable connection between minima and maxima in the Gleissberg cycle and cool and warm periods in climate, while noting that the cycle varies from 40 to 120 years making prediction difficult, however he also notes that the sun’s varying activity is linked to cycles in its irregular oscillation about the centre of mass of the solar system, and that these cycles are connected with climate phenomena and can be computed for centuries, so offer a means to forecast consecutive minima and maxima in the Gleissberg cycle and covarying phases of cool and warm climate.

He follows this with mention of the solar dynamo theory developed by Babcock, discusses the motion of the Sun around the Solar System Barycenter (or Center of Mass) and the consequent changes of angular momentum, and how this may explain observed changes in the spin momentum of the Sun.

Then he briefly revisits his remarkakable success (90%) with predicting solar flare activity, geomagnetic storms, his 1984 prediction that solar cycle 23 would be rather weaker than cycle 22 (as was the case), and various climate related predictions including drought and flood, global temperature extrema, and his largely successful ENSO forecasts – he finishes this section with the comment: “This forecast skill, solely based on cycles of solar activity, is irreconcilable with the IPCC’s allegation that it is unlikely that natural forcing can explain the warming in the latter half of the 20th century.”

For the next section discussing the 166-year cycle in variations of the rotary force driving the sun’s orbital motion, I have included an extended excerpt from the paper, as it seems important to me that the details are included both verbatim and in context for a proper understanding:
7. 166-year cycle in variations of the rotary force driving the sun’s orbital motion

The dynamics of the sun’s motion about the centre of mass can be defined quantitatively by the change in its orbital angular momentum L. The time rate of change in L is measured by its first derivative dL/dt. It defines the rotary force, the torque T driving the sun’s motion about the CM. Variations in the rotary force defined by the derivative dT/dt are a key quantity in this connection as they make it possible to forecast Gleissberg extrema for hundreds of years and even millennia.

A cycle of 166 years and its second harmonic of 83 years emerge when the time rate of change in the torque dT/dt is subjected to frequency analysis (Landscheidt, 1983). Cycles of this length, though not well known, were mentioned in the literature before. Brier (1979) found a period of just 83 years in the unsmoothed cosine transform of 2148 autocorrelations of 2628 monthly sunspot numbers. Cole (1973) confirmed this result when he investigated the power spectrum of sunspot data covering 1626 – 1968. He found a dominant peak at 84 years. Juckett (2000) derived periods of 165 and 84 years from his model of spin-orbit momentum exchange in the sun’s motion. As the wave length of the Gleissberg cycle is not far from the second harmonic of the 166-year cycle, it suggests itself to see whether the Gleissberg cycle and the dT/dt-cycle have synchronized minima and maxima. This is actually the case.

Gleissberg (1958) found the cycle named after him by smoothing the length of the 11-year sunspot cycle, a parameter that is only indirectly related to the sunspot number R measuring the intensity of sunspot activity. As it could be that the smaller or greater values of the positive and negative extrema of the dT/dt cycle have a similar parametric function, the amplitudes of these maxima and minima are taken to constitute a smoothed time series covering 2000 years. The interval is from A. D. 300 to 2300. The data were subjected to moving window Gaussian kernel smoothing (Lorczak) with a bandwidth of 60.

Figure 9 shows the result for the sub period 300 – 1200. Up to the phase reversal around 1120, indicated by an arrow, zero phases of the 166-year cycle, marked by empty circles, coincide within a relatively narrow margin with maxima in the Gleissberg cycle, indicated by filled triangles. Only close to the phase reversal the deviation of the secular maximum from the zero phase is wider. The epochs of Gleissberg minima are indicated by empty triangles. Up to the phase reversal, they consistently go along with extrema in the 166-year cycle. It makes no difference whether the extrema are positive or negative. This is reminiscent of the 11-year sunspot cycle with its exclusively positive amplitudes though the complete magnetic Hale cycle of 22 years shows positive and negative amplitudes indicating different magnetic polarities in consecutive 11-year cycles.

Fig. 9: Smoothed time series (A. D. 300 – 1200) of extrema in the change of the sun’s orbital rotary force dT/dt forming a cycle with a mean length of 166 years. Up to the phase reversal around 1120, set off by an arrow, zero phases in the cycle, marked by empty circles, coincide within a relatively narrow margin with observed maxima in the Gleissberg cycle indicated by filled triangles. Minima in the Gleissberg cycle, marked by empty triangles, go along with extrema in the 166-year cycle. The phase reversal explains the outstanding Medieval sunspot maximum. The secular maximum around 1100 was followed by another maximum around 1130 without an intermittent minimum. As Gleissberg maxima coincide with warm climate and minima with cool climate, the Medieval sunspot maximum was related to exceptionally warm climate.

The assessment of the epochs of minima and maxima by Gleissberg (1958) is based on data of auroral activity by Schove (1955). Hartmann (1972) has derived mean values of the epochs from data elaborated by Gleissberg, Schove, Link, and Henkel. These dates were used in Figures 9 and 10. An analysis covering 7000 years of data confirms not only the mean cycle length of 166 years, but also a mean interval of 83 years between consecutive positive and negative extrema. The phase reversal by [pi]/2 radians around 1120 had the effect that a Gleissberg-maximum around 1100 was followed by another maximum around 1130 without an intermittent secular minimum. This explains the Medieval sunspot maximum indirectly confirmed by radiocarbon evidence (Siscoe, 1978).

Figure 10 shows the 166-year cycle in the period 900 – 2300. After the phase reversal around 1120 all Gleissberg maxima, marked by filled triangles, rather closely coincide with extrema of the curve for hundreds of years, but around 1976 the pattern changed again because of a new phase reversal by [pi]/2 radians. After a Gleissberg maximum around 1952, a second Gleissberg maximum occurred around 1984 without an intermittent secular minimum. Only the single 11-year sunspot cycle 20 in the middle between the secular maxima showed lower sunspot activity, whereas cycles 18, 19, 21, and 22 reached very high levels of activity. The mean of the maxima of the five cycles 18 – 22 is R = 156, a value not directly observed before. We have to go back to the Medieval maximum, based on proxy data, to find a similar pattern. The phase reversals, indicated in Figure 10 by arrows, heuristically explain these special features occurring only twice in nearly 17 centuries. The recent Gleissberg maximum around 1984 is the first in a long sequence of maxima connected with zero phases in the 166-year cycle, four of which are marked by empty circles in Fig. 10. The following Gleissberg maxima should occur around 2069, 2159, and 2235.

Fig. 10: Same time series as in Fig. 9 for the years 900 – 2300. After the phase reversal around 1120, maxima in the Gleissberg cycle, indicated by filled triangles, consistently go along with extrema in the 166-year cycle, whereas Gleissberg minima fall at zero phases of the cycle. Another phase reversal around 1976 changed the pattern again. After a secular sunspot maximum around 1952, a second maximum followed around 1984 without an intermittent minimum in between. The effect was a grand sunspot maximum comparable to the outstanding maximum around 1120. The phase shift around 1976 reversed the pattern created by the phase reversal around 1120. The Gleissberg maximum around 1984 is the first in a long sequence of maxima going along with zero phases in the 166-year cycle. The following maxima should occur around 2069, 2159, and 2235. After 1976, Gleissberg minima will again go along with extrema in the 166-year cycle. The next secular minimum, indicated by an empty triangle, is to be expected around 2030. The following minima should occur around 2122 and 2201. The figure shows that the Gleissberg cycle behaves like a bistable oscillator. The current phase should last at least through 2500. Because of the link between Gleissberg cycle and climate, future periods of warmer or cooler climate can be predicted for hundreds of years. The next cool phase is to be expected around 2030.

After the phase reversal around 1976, secular minima are expected to coincide with extrema in the 166-year cycle. So the next Gleissberg minimum should occur around 2030, as indicated by an empty triangle. The following minima are to be expected around 2122 and 2201. The forecast of a secular minimum around 2030 is corroborated by a different approach. Sýkora et al. (2000) have found that variations in the brightness of the coronal green line are a long-range indicator of solar activity. They hold that “we are at the eve of a deep minimum of solar activity similar to that of the 19th century.�

8. Forecast of phase reversals in the 166-year cycle

The presented results indicate that the Gleissberg cycle is a bistable oscillator capable of assuming either of two states. The transition between these states seems to be triggered by special phases in the 166-year cycle which induce phase reversals. It attracts attention that the phase reversals shown in Figure 10 occur just before the deepest negative extrema relative to the respective environment. This points to quantitative thresholds which are confirmed by an additional case. The outstanding negative extremum preceding the Medieval maximum falls at A.D. 50. Just around this time the climax of the third grand sunspot maximum in the past two millenia occurred as indicated by strong 14C decreases (Eddy, 1977). Revealingly, this period coincides with the Roman climate optimum, as warm or even warmer than the Medieval optimum (Schönwiese, 1979). There are additional arguments of a more technical nature how to foresee phase reversals in the dT/dt–cycle (Landscheidt, 1983). All indicators show that the next phase reversal will not occur before 2500. So the current pattern should continue for hundreds of years and the next Gleissberg minimum should be linked to the next zero phase in the dT/dt-cycle in 2030.

9. Forecast of deep Gleissberg minima and cold climate around 2030 and 2200

An even more difficult question is whether future Gleissberg minima will be of the regular type with moderately reduced solar activity as around 1895, of the type of very weak activity like the Dalton minimum around 1810, or of the grand minimum type with nearly extinguished activity like the nadir of the Maunder minimum around 1670, the Spoerer minimum around 1490, the Wolf minimum around 1320, and the Norman minimum around 1010 (Stuiver and Quay, 1981). Fig. 11 offers a heuristic solution. It shows the time series of unsmoothed dT/dt-extrema for the interval 1000 – 2250. A consistent regularity attracts attention. Each time when the amplitude of a negative extremum goes below a low threshold, indicated by a dashed horizontal line, this coincides with a period of exceptionally weak solar activity.

Fig. 11: Time series of the unsmoothed extrema in the change of the sun’s orbital rotary force dT/dt for the years 1000 – 2250. Each time when the amplitude of a negative extremum goes below a low threshold, indicated by a dashed horizontal line, a period of exceptionally weak solar activity is observed. Two consecutive negative extrema transgressing the threshold indicate grand minima like the Maunder minimum (around 1670), the Spoerer minimum (around 1490), the Wolf minimum (around 1320), and the Norman minimum (around 1010), whereas a single extremum below the threshold goes along with events of the Dalton minimum type (around 1810 and 1170) not as severe as grand minima. So the Gleissberg minima around 2030 and 2200 should be of the Maunder minimum type. As climate is closely linked to the sun’s activity, conditions around 2030 and 2200 should approach those of the nadir of the Little Ice Age around 1670. As explained in the text, the IPCC’s hypothesis of man-made global warming is not in the way of this forecast exclusively based on the sun’s eruptional activity. Outstanding positive extrema have a similar function as to exceptionally warm periods like the Medieval Optimum and the modern warm period.

Two consecutive negative extrema transgressing the threshold indicate grand minima of the Maunder minimum type, whereas a single extremum below the threshold goes along with an event of the Dalton minimum type. The grand minima in Fig. 11 are indicated by their names. The single negative extremum around 1170 is of the Dalton-type. At this time solar activity caved in, but this lull was not long-lasting. According to Lamb (1977), who looked at the oxygen isotope record from north Greenland provided by Dansgaard, a period of sudden cooling occurred at the end of the 12th century. So I call this deep Gleissberg minimum after him.

Fig. 11 shows that solar activity of outstanding intensity and corresponding warm periods on Earth, too, are indicated by the extrema of dT/dt. As an example, the Medieval Optimum is marked by an arrow. It should be noted that the outstanding positive amplitude around 1120 is greater than the amplitudes around 1952 and 1984 indicating the modern Gleissberg maxima linked to warming not as high as around 1120 (Schönwiese, 1979). More details of this relationship will be presented elsewhere.

Without exception, the outstanding negative extrema coincide with periods of exceptionally weak solar activity and vice versa. So there are good reasons to expect that the coming Gleissberg minimum around 2030 will be a deep one. As there are three consecutive extrema below the quantitative threshold, there is a high probability that the event will be of the Maunder minimum type. This is also true as to the minimum around 2201, whereas the minimum around 2122 should be of the regular type, as can be seen in Fig. 11.

It has been shown that there is a close relationship between deep Gleissberg minima and cold climate. So the probability is high that the outstanding Gleissberg minima around 2030 and 2201 will go along with periods of cold climate comparable to the nadir of the Little Ice Age. As to the minimum around 2030, there are additional indications that global cooling is to be expected instead of global warming. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) will show negative values up to at least 2016 (Landscheidt, 2001), and La Niñas will be more frequent and stronger than El Niños through 2018 (Landscheidt, 2000).

The heuristic results derived from the 166-year cycle are not yet corroborated by a detailed chain of cause and effect. Progress in this respect will be difficult as the theories of solar activity and climate change are still in a rudimentary stage of development, though there is progress as to the physical explanation of special solar-terrestrial relationships (Haigh, 1996; Tinsley and Yu, 2002).Yet the connection with solar system dynamics, the length of the involved data series covering millennia, and the skilful forecasts of solar activity and climate events based on the same foundation speak for the dependability of the forecast of the coming Gleissberg minima and their climatic impact.
He then goes on to discuss various problems with the IPCC version of CO2 warming, gives a brief ‘outlook’, and finishes with a list of sources cited.

Perhaps the best approach is to take a close look at this definitive paper:

EXTREMA IN SUNSPOT CYCLE LINKED TO SUN’S MOTION
THEODOR LANDSCHEIDT
(Received 21 May 1999; accepted 13 September 1999)
Abstract.

Partitions of 178.8-year intervals between instances of retrograde motion in the Sun’s oscillation about the center of mass of the solar system seem to provide synchronization points for the timing of minima and maxima in the 11 -year sunspot cycle. In the investigated period 1632-1990, the statistical significance of the relationship goes beyond the level P = 0.001. The extrapolation of the observed pattern points to sunspot maxima around 2000.6 and 2011.8. If a further connection with long-range variations in sunspot intensity proves reliable, four to five weak sunspot cycles (R < 80) are to be expected after cycle 23 with medium strength (R ~ 100).

The part I bolded is a most interesting prediction of upcoming solar activity.

As we have not yet reached solar minimum, and no high latitude cycle 24 spots have yet appeared, we may still be 12 to 18 months from minimum if recent cycles are anything to go by, and I venture a speculation that if no cycle 24 spots appear in the very near future then perhaps Dr Landscheidt should have also mentioned the other possible date of the upcoming solar max using his methods, 2013.6 (see details of his methods in the paper), which if it turns out to be true means a very long cycle which could indicate a very low sunspot max.

The following is a rather lengthy look at this interesting paper.

After introducing 11 and 22 year cycles, some historical work, and changes in the rate of solar rotation, he dicusses the interaction of the Sun’s orbital angular momentum and it’s spin momentum:
Yet the Sun’s spin momentum, related to its rotation on its axis, is only one component of its total angular momentum. The other factor is the Sun’s orbital angular momentum linked to its irregular oscillation about the center of mass of the solar system. The contribution of the orbital momentum to the total angular momentum is not negligible. The maximum value reaches 25% of the Sun’s spin momentum. In addition, there is strong variation. The orbital angular momentum varies from —0.1 x 10^47 to 4.3 x 10^47 g cm2 s1 or reversely, which is more than a forty-fold increase or decrease. If there were transfer of angular momentum from the Sun’s orbit to the spin on its axis, this could make a difference of more than 5% in its equatorial rotational velocity (Blizard, 1982). Such acceleration or deceleration has been actually observed (Landscheidt, 1976). This seems to be indicative of a case of spin-orbit coupling of the spinning Sun and the Sun revolving about the center of mass involving transfer of angular momentum (Landscheidt, 1986b, 1988). Coupling could result from the Sun’s motion through its own ejected plasma. The low corona can act as a brake on the Sun’s surface (Dicke, 1964).

After introducing the 178.8 yr cycle and some early cycles work, Dr Landscheidt gets into the real ‘meat’ of his paper, describing the 178.8 yr return period of retrograde events:
Jose (1965) did not relate the 178.8-year cycle to special events in the Sun’s motion. He only observed that the Sun’s path about the center of mass and functions like the rate of change in the orbital angular momentum form patterns that repeat at intervals of 178.8 years. Yet there are special events in the Sun’s motion that constitute a 178.8-year repeat pattern. Jose was the first to point at these phenomena. Around 1632, 1811, and 1990 the Sun’s motion relative to the center of mass was retrograde and the orbital angular momentum, which had been positive for centuries, became negative. The next retrograde Sun event (RSE) will occur around 2169. If there is a relationship between the Sun’s motion and solar activity, the intervals of 178.8 years between RSEs might provide synchronization points for the magnetic sunspot cycle, especially as Jose has shown that there is a cycle of 178.8 years in sunspot activity.

Here is a graph of the angular momentum for the three periods discussed above:

In particular, note the red arrows that mark the -ve angular momentum points at 1632, 1811, 1990, and 2169. Notice also how similar the three full 178.8 year cycles look when displayed this way – at first glance they look the same, but there are subtle differences if you look closely.

Dr Landscheidt goes on to discuss some interesting evidence connecting RSEs with solar plasma instabilities, going into some detail about the remarkable flare events in the period around the 1990 RSE.

He then mentions the lack of data to check longer time scales and some historical solar work, and continues:
…It has been shown, however, that there is a close connection between variations in the Sun’s positive orbital angular momentum and solar activity. As positive momentum is the prevailing condition for centuries, it may be expected that a switch to negative momentum has a disturbing effect which also affects the Sun’s activity, though perhaps in a different way.

According to Pimm and Bjorn (1969), 49% of the variance in sunspot number can be related to the Sun’s positive orbital angular momentum and the curvature of its path around the barycenter. This is based on a correlation coefficient r = 0.7. Further 9.8% of the sunspot variance can be explained by Sun-centered Coriolis acceleration (Blizard, 1987). I showed in the early eighties that there is a secular cycle in the time rate of change of the Sun’s orbital angular momentum that is in phase with the secular Gleissberg cycle which modulates the amplitudes of the 11-year sunspot cycle. Since A.D. 300, the solar motion cycle has correctly indicated all maxima and minima in the Gleissberg cycle, though the length of this cycle varies from 40 to 120 years. An evaluation of this connection by a /2-test [R2-test?] yields highly significant results far beyond the level P = 0.001 (Landscheidt, 1986a, 1987).

See these papers for more on his analysis of the Gleissberg cycle mentioned in the bolded part above:
Swinging Sun, 79-Year Cycle, and Climatic Change
SOLAR ROTATION, IMPULSES OF THE TORQUE IN THE SUN’S MOTION, AND CLIMATIC VARIATION
The secular solar motion cycle points to waning sunspot activity past 1990 and a deep sunspot minimum around 2030.

I have bolded this part where Dr Landscheidt predicts a marked reduction in solar activity from 1990 to a deep minimum in 2030, which to my mind indicates that after a few decades of global warming the Earth may soon turn the corner towards global cooling – and since 2000 the Earth’s temperature does seem to be moving sideways rather than upwards, so we may be in fact now be moving along the top of the temperature curve prior to a coming downturn:

Source: http://www.junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/HadCRUG.html

And continuing with cycle 23:
Forecasts in 1984 (Landscheidt, 1986a, 1987), based on these data, seem to be in accordance with the actual development after 1990. Though a panel of experts on solar cycle forecast (Joselyn et al, 1997) predicted in 1996 and even two years later that cycle 23 would have a large amplitude similar to the preceding cycles (highest smoothed monthly sunspot number R = 160), the course of the data in the first three years of the cycle shows that a peak around R — 100 is more realistic. The Sunspot Index Data Center, Brussels, now expects a maximum at R = 97. Even more conspicuous is the weakness of eruptional activity in cycle 23.

Here is a graph of soon to be complete sunspot cycle 23, which peaked at about 120 (smoothed) in April 2000, although the strongest month of the series by far was was July 2000:

Source: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

He goes on to discuss predicting solar eruptions such as X-ray flares and geomagnetic storms and confirmation of same, even predicting where in relation to the direction of the center of mass of the solar system (CM) such flares will occur under certain circumstances.

He then moves on to discuss Retrograde Sun and Sunspot Extrema, and power of two divisions (harmonics) of the 178.8-year period:
In the light of these effects linked to change in the Sun’s positive angular momentum and the observed coincidence of outstanding solar eruptions and reversals of the sign of momentum, it seems promising to see whether the 178.8-year intervals between consecutive RSEs (RSI) can be related to sunspots, though perhaps in a different way as with regular positive momentum. It attracts attention that half of the RSI – 89.4 years – falls within the range of the length of the Gleissberg cycle. It is also noticeable that the fourth part of the RSI – 44.7 years – has not only the length of the double Hale cycle, quoted in the literature (Schove, 1983), but also indicates periods of strong sunspot activity covering several decades. After 1700 the fourth parts of RSIs fell at 1766, 1856, and 1945. In each case, this was the start of a sequence of two to three strong 11-year cycles. In the case 1856 the strong activity additionally included two earlier cycles. The whole interval and its half and fourth parts point to the geometric progression 1, inversely related to powers of 2. This elementary progression plays a fundamental role in natural sciences and is also part of the Titius-Bode Law of planetary distances and von Weizsacker’s nebular theory which explains the power 2 progression and its role in the formation of the distance pattern (Nieto, 1972).

Continued investigation along these lines shows that the 8th part and the 16th part of the RSI are closely connected with sunspots.The 8th part, equal to 22.35 years, is close to the mean length of the complete magnetic cycle of 22.1 years. The 16th part of the RSI, equal to 11.175 years, and the mean length of the 11-year sunspot cycle of 11.05 years, based on continuous observations available since 1700, are equally close to each other. This match disappears when a geometric progression is chosen that is based on powers of 3. Fairbridge and Hameed (1983) have shown that there is significant phase coherence of 11 -year sunspot minima in two consecutive 178-year intervals even if they are not related to special initial events. The minimum phases observed in the first interval show a repeat pattern in the second interval, though only a rough one. The level of significance is P = 0.02.

Some fascinating corespondences between various cycles discussed above – to summarise:

1 RSI = 178.8 years: interval between successive RSE’s

1/2 RSI = 89.4 years: weak approximation of Gleissberg cycle (80 yr)

1/4 RSI = 44.7 years: marks start of 2 to 3 cycles of strong solar activity

1/8 RSI = 22.35 years: close to mean length of Hale magnetic cycle (22.1 yrs)

1/16 RSI = 11.175 years: close to mean length of the sunspot cycle of (11.05 yrs)

He discusses this a bit further, then presents some results of his investigations:
Figures l(a) and l(b) show the result for the respective RSIs. Initial phases of these intervals are indicated by arrows and the label RS. Sixteenth parts of RSIs (SP) are marked by filled triangles. Nearly all of the 33 SPs coincide within a relatively small range with sunspot extrema. In both of the RSIs investigated, the first 13 SPs go along with sunspot minima. A switch to maxima in the earlier RSI after the 13th SP is exactly repeated in the later RSI. Only after 15 conforming SPs there is a divergence including the last two SPs.

Figure 1. Distribution of 16th parts (filled triangles) of 178.8-year intervals between retrograde phases in the Sun’s motion about the center of mass of the solar system (arrows) in relation to extrema of the 11-year sunspot cycle in the periods 1632-1810 (a) and 1811-1990 (b). The associations in both of the 178.8-year intervals show the same pattern with the exception of the last two extrema. Such divergence seems to balance the accumulating difference in length between 16th parts (11.175 years) and sunspot cycles (11.05 years). The extrapolation of the pattern, covering nearly 360 years, points to future sunspot maxima around 2000.6 and 2011.8.

In the first cycle the SPs fall back at minima, whereas in the second cycle the association with maxima continues. Such a divergent course was to be expected. The difference of 0.125 years between the mean length 11.05 years of the sunspot cycle and the length 11.175 years of SP is small, but accumulates over longer periods and must be balanced. Especially secular periods of weak sunspot activity with longer cycles as after 1790 or between 1880 and 1930 and of strong activity with shorter cycles as after 1940 make compensations necessary.

Figure 2. Frequency distribution of 16th parts of 178.8-year intervals from 1632 to 1990 within the normalized 11-year sunspot cycle. The close association with sunspot minimum and maximum is statistically significant beyond the level P = 0.001.

The association of a sunspot maximum with the recent RSE 1990 differs from the two preceding RSEs that were related to minima. This indicates that changes in the association are predominately linked to compensation processes, though there may be a basic association pattern that prevails as long as the differences between the length of sunspot cycles and SPs do not accumulate to such a degree that compensation becomes inevitable.

Two RSIs are not enough to decide what the basic association pattern looks like. The investigation is still in the stage of gathering data and establishing morphological relationships which precede the emergence of hypotheses and elaborated theories. We need to fully characterize the Sun’s behaviour first before we can explain it. Yet it may be speculated that phase locking plays a role in establishing the association between sunspot extrema and RSIs. The waxing and waning sunspot activity constitutes an oscillation as well as the Sun’s motion about the center of mass. These oscillations may be considered coupled as they belong to the same system, the Sun’s dynamics. As coupled oscillators obey the principle of least action, they are bound to establish a state of minimal energy waste. Complete or partial phase locking contributes to such an economical state. In the phase locking process, consecutive RSEs, which are produced by the Sun’s oscillations at equal distances, could be looked at as fixed points which serve as synchronizing signals. As symmetry breaking occurs in such cases (Strogatz and Stewart, 1993), it may be expected that on occasion the emerging pattern deviates from the most frequent outcome.

He goes on to further discuss the distribution shown in figure 2 above, and observes that:
The SPs around maxima concentrate on a range of 8 to 12 months before and after the maximum and shun the exact maximum phase. The association of SPs with the sunspot minimum shows a similar pattern. There are accumulations around 5.3 and 7.6 years, 1 year before and 1.3 years after the minimum, but the exact minimum phase is empty, and in the year afterwards only two SPs are to be found. Conspicuous is the skewed distribution around the minimum. Eighteen harmonics fall before it and only 7 after it. This could be important for prediction experiments. That there are only 6 connections with maxima and 25 with minima could be an effect of the relatively short time series of RSIs.

He then discusses the statistical significance of the results before moving on to forecasting:
5. Forecasts of Sunspot Extrema

This statistical corroboration, linked to a physical background, justifies a forecast experiment. Though there are no reliable indications in the pattern when a switch from sunspot maxima to minima will occur, recent data can be used to decide whether the next SPs will go along with minima or maxima. The last minimum occurred in 1996.4. Even if the current cycle 23 had a length of only 10 years, which is not likely because of its relative weakness, the next minimum would fall at 2006.4. This is 4.9 years away from the next SP in 2001.5. Minima observed since 1632 did never deviate more than 1.8 years from the SP date. So the next SP should be associated with a maximum. Figure 2 shows that in most cases the actual maxima fall in a range 8 to 12 months before the exact SP date. So the imminent maximum will probably occur around 2000.6 ± 0.16 years. Even if cycle 24;.had also a length of 10 years, the following minimum would occur in 2016.4. This does not match the SP in 2012.7. So another maximum should be expected around 2011.8 ±0.16 years.

Note that his prediction of cycle 23 max for 2000.6 ± 0.16 (May-Sept) max was a little late (April) if looking at the smoothed vales but spot on for the highest month (June).

Now, to rehash what I wrote earlier, as we have not yet reached solar minimum, and no high latitude cycle 24 spots have yet appeared, we may still be 12 to 18 months from solar minimum if recent cycles are anything to go by, meaning the solar min may not be until mid to late 2008, and I venture a speculation that if no cycle 24 spots appear in the very near future, aside from the next solar max being at 2011.8 ±0.16 years as mentioned above, perhaps Dr Landscheidt should have also mentioned the other possible date using his methods: 2013.6 ±0.16 years – the longer we go without any cycle 24 spots the more likely the second date becomes – which if it turns out to be true means a very long cycle which could indicate a very low sunspot max.

He next looks at cycle intensity.
6. Intensity of Sunspot Activity

Further inspection of the data indicates that not only the epochs of sunspot extrema, but also the intensity of sunspot activity may be read from RSIs. Figure 3 shows superimposed smoothed sunspot data from the two investigated RSIs. Prevalent antisymmetry of the trendlines in the consecutive RSIs is obvious. Details of these oppositely directed trends can be identified in Figure 1. Only the short period between the 130th and 145th year of the respective RSIs is an exception. The parallel course was initiated just at the time of the switch from minima to maxima after the 13th SP. It is a striking feature that in both of the RSIs the sunspot numbers reach the highest observed values a decade after the switch: R = 159 in 1778 and R = 201 in 1957. If this is a substantial repeat pattern, the sunspot amplitudes in the running RSI should roughly follow the course in RSI 1632 to 1810. A forecast experiment could help to decide whether this is correct. It should be expected that the current cycle with medium strength (R ^ 100) is followed by four to five weak cycles (R

Figure 3. Superimposed smoothed sunspot numbers within consecutive retrograde Sun intervals 1632 -1810 and 1811-1990. The two curves, representing long-range trends in sunspot intensity, show prevalent antisymmetry, details of which are apparent in Figure 1. The exceptional parallel trend between the 130th and 145th year of the intervals is linked to the coherent switch from minima to maxima visible in Figure 1. Both of the curves reach their highest point at the end of the parallel trend. This corresponds with record sunspot numbers R = 159 in 1778 and R = 201 in 1957. If the connection is real, the interval that began in 1990 should roughly reflect the course of the interval starting in 1632. After cycle 23 of medium intensity, four to five weak cycles (R < 80) should follow.

If Dr Landscheidt is correct, then the Earth is likely to enter into many decades of cooler temperatures, with the very real threat that conditions could become more like the Little Ice Age a few centuries back.

He then discusses the weaknesses of this examination and finishes off with a full list of sources cited.